The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
In this memo Hopewell's mayor states that to incite town's economy and increase tax revenues, Hopewell should build a new golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View as two years ago. To support this recommendation, the mayor points out that in Ocean View during the past two years tourism has increased, new businesses have opened and tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. In some respects, however, the evidence lends little credible supports for the argument.
Firstly, the mayor assumes that increasing tourism bears some relation with build golf course and restore hotel. Yet the mayor provides no evidence to support this assumption. It is possible that the increase in tourism might be due to improving economy conditions nationwide, or perhaps tourism is fashionable during past two years. Since the mayor failed to consider the possibilities, the claim that can accrue the Hopewell’s economy by constructing a golf course and hotel is entirely unwarranted.
Secondly, the fact that new businesses have opened and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percents lends little support to the argument. Certainly it is possible that the newly developing business in Ocean View has fashionable in the time but irrespective with construction of a golf course and hotel. And, the 30% increase in tax revenues might have been the result of an increase in tax rates, or the addition of a new type of municipal tax. By failing address these possibilities, the mayor cannot convince us that by building new golf course and hotel can boost Ocean View’s economy.
Thirdly, even if the Ocean View’s economy is much better than ever before, the mayor assumes further that building new golf course and hotel can improve the Hopewell’s economy and procreate additional tax revenues. Yet the argument suffers from a critical flaw in special pleading, the mayor fails to take into consideration that there might be have some unpredictable problems in construction of new golf course and hotel. Perhaps, Hopewell might lack the sort of natural environment that would attract more tourists and new businesses to the town－regardless of its new golf course and hotel.
Finally, the mayor refers to increasing Hopewell’s economy by building new golf course and restore hotel. However, there is no evidence presented in the argument to back up this conclusion and the argument commits a fallacy of “ post hoc “. Even if the recent trends in Ocean View are ascribed to construction of golf course and hotel there. The mayor assumes too hastily that the golf course and hotel will continue benefit the town’s overall economy. Perhaps Hopewell already contains several resort hotels and golf courses that are not utilized to their capacity. If so, building yet another golf course and hotel might amount to a misallocation of the town's resources－and actually harm the town's overall economy.
In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. Simply building a golf course and hotel does not mean that can boost the Hopewell’s economy. The mayor should provide better evidences and some other phenomenon can be responsible for boosting Ocean View's economy during the last two years. To better assess the strength of the recommendation, the mayor would need to directly put forth evidence associating construction and economy with not only those evidences.
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